How many money markets are prevailing in pakistan

Finance from London was obtained by rediscounting bills of exchange. After the war, when rice exports were handled by the government-owned State Agricultural Marketing Board, this method of obtaining finance declined. Burma, however, is still connected with London; in —51, when there were insufficient local banking funds to finance the large volume of import trade created by the sudden relaxation of import controls, and in , when there was a shortage of funds because of expansion of domestic output, the foreign exchange banks, mainly British, were able to import funds to meet the situation.

During the peak season of , such funds were estimated at K 50 million, or about a quarter of commercial bank loans, advances, and bills discounted outstanding. In India, a study of the movement in short-term rates in Bombay and London also indicates the existence of a connection with London.

The relative positions of the annual average rates have therefore depended a great deal upon the length of the busy season and the extent to which the Bombay rates have been higher in the busy season and lower in the slack season. In spite of this, the annual averages of the short-term rates have moved together fairly closely Chart 1. The London discount rate seems to influence the short-term rate in India.

Thus, the more than seasonal rise in short-term rates in India in the latter half of and in early was preceded by a rise in the London market discount rate Chart 2.

This rise in the London market discount rate occurred several months before the Bank of England raised its discount rate on November 8, In the Philippines, much of the foreign trade is financed through export and import bills. During , the value of export bills passing through the commercial banks in the Philippines amounted to 51 per cent of exports, and the value of import bills to 52 per cent of imports.

An underdeveloped country by having access to world money markets benefits from the lower rates there prevailing; but it also suffers from the disadvantage that, by its very dependence, its domestic rates of interest tend to fluctuate with changes in interest rates and lending facilities in the developed countries.

When the balance of payments position became unfavorable in the latter half of , the foreign exchange was released from the sterilized official holdings and the central bank repurchased some of the treasury bonds it had sold previously. By this method, the level of interest rates and the amount of domestic credit created by commercial banks were stabilized.

I nterest R ates in A rgentina , D ecember —D ecember In and , the central bank—through its readiness to purchase, in any amount at any time, sterling up to six months forward at the spot rate of Is. When the worst of the monetary inflation had passed, the central bank in January reversed this policy, and forward exchange rates were increased. It also fixed working sterling balances for each bank and refused to purchase sterling forward from any bank whose actual balance in sterling exceeded the working balance limit.

The economies of most underdeveloped countries are export economies depending mainly on one or a few agricultural commodities with strong seasonal characteristics. Therefore, their demands for loanable funds fluctuate seasonally. Whether these fluctuations also produce seasonal interest rate movements depends upon the elasticity of the supply of loanable funds. Judging by the changes in call loan rates or in the discount rates prevailing in the market, seasonal fluctuations are to be found in interest rates in Burma, India, Lebanon, Mexico, and Pakistan Chart 3.

For most other countries, data are not available, but in Ceylon there seem to be no seasonal fluctuations, presumably because of easy access to the London money market. In India and Pakistan, rates are higher in the busy season, November to April, while in Burma they are highest in the first quarter of the year.

The seasonal change in interest rates is not so pronounced in Lebanon and Mexico. The experience of Burma and India indicates that seasonal fluctuations were more violent before the big depression of when the interest rates were much higher than in recent years and central banks had not yet been established Charts 4 and 5. With the reversal of this policy by the Reserve Bank of India in , seasonal fluctuations in the call loan rate became apparent Chart 4 , but they are still not so pronounced as in predepression days or even as before the war.

Prewar data on interbank call loan rates in Burma are not available, but Chettiar 15 interest rate statistics throw light on the subject. The Chettiar call deposit rate or current rate was fixed for only one month at a time after account was taken of all the other indigenous rates in the market and, more important still, the rate for joint stock bank advances to the Chettiars.

The seasonal fluctuations in interest rates were very large in Burma at the end of the nineteenth century Chart 5. The Chettiar current rates during —41 probably do not represent the market rates because, with the big depression in , Chettiars ceased making new loans 17 and their credit with the joint stock banks was not so good as previously.

There was probably more seasonal fluctuation in interest rates during the —41 period than is suggested by the Chettiar current rates. The available evidence suggests that interest rates in organized money markets in underdeveloped countries are subject to cyclical fluctuations similar to those in developed countries. Most of the evidence comes from experience during the great depression beginning in and during the period of high economic activity, and the subsequent decline, related to the Korean conflict.

For Burma and India, indeed, fairly long series are available, the Burmese series showing movements of the Chettiar current rate of interest explained above , and the Indian series movements of the bank rate of the Presidency Bank of Bengal, i. Average of daily rates 2 in per cent per annum. The great depression.

During the great depression, interest rates in developed countries moved in two different ways. In one group of countries, represented by Sweden, the United States, and the United Kingdom, which had depreciated their currencies, interest rates fell rapidly, with the long-term rate falling much more slowly than the short-term so that the spread between the two widened. In the other group, the countries of the gold bloc, such as France, Belgium, the Netherlands, and Switzerland, interest rates not only did not fall but they even tended to rise.

These gold bloc countries, because of nondepreciation, had balance of payments deficits, lost gold to depreciating countries, and were faced with deflation. The deflationary pressure reduced income and prices, so that government revenues fell and budget deficits increased. Since most governments in this group covered their deficits by domestic borrowing, private savings were absorbed by the government and interest rates began to rise.

In the first group, the fall in interest rates was accelerated by a virtual cessation of capital exports, a reduced volume of world trade—and consequently a smaller need for finance from their money markets—and lastly by the very fact of currency depreciation, which brought about balance of payments surpluses leading to the acquisition of foreign assets and the expansion of the money supply.

In the underdeveloped countries, interest rates fell during the depression, but for two different sets of reasons. In one group of countries, which is illustrated by India, the decline in rates was due to the fall in rates in world money markets, such as London. During —29, the absolute difference between the government bond yield and the call money rate in Calcutta was 1.

In the second group of countries, mainly those of Latin America, the fall in interest rates resulted from the abandonment of the gold exchange standard 21 and changes in policy toward such protective devices as high interest rates and restrictions on bank credit creation.

The fall in interest rates is shown in the substantial reduction in discount rates of central banks. In other countries, such as Brazil, the price of government bonds rose and the yield fell significantly during and The deflationary effect of the depression was rather short-lived in Japan, because interest rates were dominated by the policy of credit expansion caused by government deficit financing.

This drain, however, was halted when Japan abandoned the gold standard in December , and within a year the gold value of the yen had fallen by 60 per cent. Deficit financing was undertaken by the Government on account of the war in China and also for domestic reasons. The total volume of government bonds outstanding increased from 4, million yen in October to 8, million yen in October , most of which were held by commercial banks; the Bank of Japan bought these bonds in the first instance but resold them to the commercial banks.

Partly as an antideflationary measure and partly to enable the Government to borrow money cheaply, the Bank of Japan reduced its discount rate by stages, from 5. The average yield on government bonds also fell, from 6. The discount rate charged by commercial banks on day commercial paper, however, fell only slightly, from 4. The reason for this small decline in commercial bank lending rates to the private sector was that the banks had utilized their available excess funds to purchase government bonds.

Interest rates in China fell in the early years of the depression, the interbank call loan rate in Shanghai, for example, moving from 5. Between and , however, the rise in the price of silver, on which the currency system of China was based, placed the country under deflationary pressure and interest rates began to rise; the interbank call loan rate in Shanghai advanced to over 5 per cent in The deflationary pressure and the outflow of silver was halted by the demonetization of silver and the depreciation of the currency in November Activity resulting from Korean conflict.

A valuable case study can be based on the experience of a number of countries in Asia and the Far East during and after the Korean conflict. During the period of increased activity, the demand for loanable funds expanded because of the higher level of economic activity resulting from the larger volume of exports.

This increased demand was met by an expansion of commercial bank credit, brought about either by utilizing excess cash balances Burma, Indonesia, and the Philippines , by sale of government securities especially India , or by the import of banking funds Burma and Pakistan.

The expansion of credit, however, was not sufficient to meet the larger need for funds, and, therefore, interest rates rose in the organized money markets in many of these countries.

The rise occurred at all levels, affecting the government bond yield, the call money rate between banks, and the lending rates of commercial banks. In Taiwan, commercial banks increased their lending rates from 3.

In Japan, commercial bank lending rates rose slightly in September , and sharply a month later after the Bank of Japan raised its discount rate from 5. In the Philippines, the weighted average rate on loans, discounts, and overdrafts of commercial banks rose from 5.

After activity had fallen sharply, interest rates fell again in some countries Burma, Malaya, and the Philippines , but in others, such as India and Japan, where the dear money policy continued to be used as an anti-inflationary measure, interest rates, generally speaking, remained high or continued to rise. In India, the call money rate rose from 1. In Japan, although the call money rate rose to 8.

The general expectation is that the long-term trend of interest rates in underdeveloped countries, at least in the organized markets, should be downward. The long-term supply of loanable funds therefore tends to increase more rapidly than the long-term demand.

Where, for one reason or another, the growth of banking has been restricted or the banking system subjected by law to many restrictions, including controls on interest rates and of the purposes for which loans may be granted as in a number of countries in Latin America , the long-term trend of interest rates may, however, not be downward. In some countries in Asia, a comparison between interest rates before and after the great depression —34 and the rates prevailing today show in fact a definite downward trend.

This is true especially in Burma, Ceylon, and India. In Burma the level of the Chettiar current rate in the thirties was lower than in the twenties and also lower than the rates prevailing about the turn of the century Chart 5.

In India, judging by the bank rate of the Presidency Bank of Bengal, there was up to no apparent change in the long-term trend of interest rates. The effect of the great depression and the emergence of cheap money policy during and immediately after the war have caused interest rates at present to be lower than in the past, in spite of the reversal of the cheap money policy since Thus, during the period —34 the call money rate in Bombay averaged 3. Subsequently, both rates declined.

Long-term data for Latin America are not available. But judging from the generally inflationary conditions prevailing there and also from limited information on Brazil and Chile, it seems that the long-term trend of interest rates has not been downward. In Chile, the weighted average, rate of interest on loans granted by commercial banks was 8. The average was lower during the depression, but in the war and postwar years it has again been high.

During —54 it averaged as much as In Brazil, the government bond yield on 5 per cent bonds and obligations averaged 6. In Argentina, however, government bond yields in recent years have been much lower than they were two or three decades ago. During —34 they averaged 6.

Apart from any movement in the interest rate on loans against a specific type of collateral, the weighted average rate will tend to fall as the economy develops and business units hold larger quantities of financial assets, such as government bonds, which are more attractive to bankers as collateral.

The loans against such collateral will tend to grow in importance at the expense of loans granted against less attractive collateral, such as land and houses. Since the rate on the former type of collateral is lower than on the latter type, the weighted average rate will fall. The average level of interest rates in the organized money markets of underdeveloped countries can thus be lowered by encouraging the development of the banking system.

Closer connections between these markets and world money markets, such as London, would also help in reducing interest rates. Statutory control of interest rates, though necessary at times, usually does not lead to a lowering of the effective rate; all it ensures is that the nominal rate is within the law as ways and means are found to circumvent the law through higher minimum deposit requirements, better types of collateral, etc. Where banking development is slow, governments may consider lending money at low rates of interest in competition with private lending and thus attempt to bring down interest rates.

Government lending is already of some significance in some underdeveloped countries, such as Burma, Japan, and Pakistan in Asia, and Mexico in Latin America. The solution of the problem of high interest rates, however, is not simple. Where government lending is financed by the printing press and not from budgetary surpluses, there is a great likelihood of inflation and of a cyclical rise of interest rates. However, if government lending is financed by tax receipts and borrowing from the public i.

The interest rate structure and lending practices in the organized money markets of the underdeveloped countries conform fairly closely to those prevailing in developed countries. This is to be expected because the organized money markets in underdeveloped countries are dominated by commercial banks which have been modeled upon the commercial banking practices of developed countries. The sterling area countries and others linked financially with the money markets of more developed countries have had lower rates of interest in their organized money markets than the underdeveloped countries of Latin America and the Middle East.

With access to the world financial markets, local commercial banks have borrowed cheaply by rediscounting foreign trade bills of exchange and thus have been able to charge lower rates of interest on their advances and overdrafts. The long-term trend of interest rates in underdeveloped countries is downward, though in some countries—especially in Latin America where there has been inflation for many decades—interest rates have not fallen.

It can be expected that, with further development of banking and economic growth, the rate of interest in the organized money markets will fall. The establishment of central banks in many countries, especially in Asia, after the war, should also in the long run reduce the cost of credit and make it more readily available. Seasonal fluctuations in interest rates in underdeveloped countries have their origin in the seasonality in the marketing of the major export crops.

With the development of central banks and the abandonment of rigid exchange standards which had tied the volume of currency to the amount of foreign exchange available, the amplitude of fluctuations in interest rates has generally been reduced.

Cyclical fluctuations in rates have been found in a number of underdeveloped countries, and probably also occur elsewhere, although the relevant statistical data are defective. The percentages of total short-term loanable funds supplied by commercial banks in are estimated to be 72 per cent in Burma, 78 per cent in India, 73 per cent in Japan, 94 per cent in Malaya , 79 per cent in Pakistan, 95 per cent in the Philippines, and 91 per cent in Thailand The case of Malaya is deceptive as it is really only Singapore that has a fairly large money market.

In the Federation of Malaya, money markets are very small. Strictly speaking, Japan is not an underdeveloped country. But neither is it as developed as the United Kingdom, the United States, or Western Europe judging by per capita income.

Japan is included in this study partly because of its recent growth and partly because many of its problems are similar to those of the underdeveloped countries of Asia and Latin America. There are, however, important exceptions. The rates in Bombay are only a shade higher than in London, and at times certain rates have even been lower.

From through , the government bond yield in India was lower than in the United Kingdom. The reason was that in India the open market operations of the Reserve Bank of India kept the government bond yield artificially low while in the United Kingdom it was allowed to rise.

Especially for a comparison between interest rates in underdeveloped countries, government bond yields are not the most suitable indicator, because different monetary policies and the support of the government bond markets by the central banks may influence government bond yields without necessarily influencing other rates.

Furthermore, bond yields are also influenced by the financial position of governments in underdeveloped countries. However, the general level of bond yields, when compared over a long period, can be informative. In , the central bank rates in Asia ranged between 1. For data by countries, see Table 3. The amount of government securities held by commercial banks before the war was negligible; but with the postwar growth of bank holdings central and commercial of government securities, this has become an important weapon of control in a number of underdeveloped countries, such as Ceylon and India.

Even in October , when central bank loans to commercial banks were at the maximum of Rs 4. Even without the increase in the central bank rate, the market rate would have risen, but probably by a smaller amount. The long-term interest rates as indicated by government bond yields in the two centers are not so closely related as short-term rates because each market has its own central bank policy with regard to the price at which it will support government bonds to enable governments to borrow cheaply.

The percentages were even higher for the earlier postwar years. In , the export percentage was 82 and the import percentage Unfortunately data are not available for prewar years or for years later than Chettiars came from Madras to Burma as to other Southeast Asian countries to serve as bankers, organized on eastern lines, mainly for financing agriculture. The depression had destroyed the ability of the agriculturists to repay loans to the Chettiars. Insofar as land had been the chief collateral and mortgages were foreclosed, the Chettiars became owners of land.

Although these banks had the right of note issue until , were partly owned by the Government until , and acted as bankers to the Government, they were basically commercial banks. They did, however, also play an important role in the development and regulation of the commercial banking system until when they were amalgamated to form the Imperial Bank of India. Another factor in India was the large scale dishoarding of gold by the peasant population and the resulting export of gold, which increased the money supply and the cash liquidity of the banking system.

The first group of countries also depreciated their currencies with reference to gold, but most of their important trading partners also depreciated their currencies. In the second group of countries, depreciation was generally much more than that of their main trading partners; by the end of the currencies of Brazil and Bolivia had depreciated by about 60 per cent, of Ecuador by 75 per cent, of Mexico by 67 per cent, and of Argentina by 65 per cent, while the United Kingdom and the United States depreciated their currencies by only 40 per cent.

Until , the average yield on government bonds was higher than the commercial bank discount rate on day commercial paper. This may be delayed if underdeveloped countries attempt to implement overambitious development programs and thus create a long inflationary period.

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The Total Fertility Rate has declined very marginally from 3. The current COVID pandemic has posed extensive challenges and is expected to significantly impact health outcomes resulting from a disruption in provision of essential health services.

As Pakistan is now recovering from lockdown, it is expected that regular service provision will resume to cover the gaps that may have developed. Four federal projects are currently underway. The project aims to strengthen federal and provincial capacities in the education sector to respond and recover from the COVID 19 crises, with a focus on disadvantaged and vulnerable populations. Under this project Ministry of Federal Education and Professional Training MoFEPT in close coordination with provincial departments in overseeing procurement and distribution of health and hygiene supplies to 12, government schools across the country to ensure safe school reopening.

MoFEPT is currently developing a plan to develop additional content by grade levels to build on existing outreach in the coming months. The program is aimed at enhanced targeting of COVID 19 education response, generating improved learning opportunities for OOSC and at-risk students, and enabling stronger federal-provincial coordination and management.

Advance against year 1 targets have been made available to MoFEPT that shall in turn be transferred to provincial education departments through a streamlined grant mechanism to service activities contributing to program results. MoFEPT is currently consolidating evidence against year 1 results including adoption of National School Health and Safety Protocols, approval of National Education Response and Resilience Plan, provision of distance learning kits to 50, students across the country, and provision of hygiene and cleaning kits to 20, public schools nationwide.

The project aims at improving evidence based and targeted COVID 19 response and recovery through strengthened education data infrastructure and coordination mechanisms between federal and provincial governments. The Bank also supports the tertiary education system under the 5 year Higher Education Development in Pakistan that aims support research excellence in strategic sectors of the economy, improve teaching and learning and strengthen governance, in the higher education sector.

Basic Education: Primary education in Punjab is achieving remarkable results in both participation and quality improvement, following an ambitious reform program supported by the PESP-III program. There has been some decrease in school participation in the last available data, most likely due to the ongoing pandemic, which has been projected to reduce enrolments in Pakistan by close to 1 million students. School participation has been targeted through perhaps the largest public-private partnership program in the world that now enrolls around 2.

At the same time, Punjab is trying to reach children as early as possible by developing a 2-year early childhood education ECE curriculum. Currently around 5, ECE classrooms meet new quality standards, which include the presence of a trained teacher and caregiver as well as a kit with instructional material. These classrooms are monitored by field-based inspectors using smartphone apps, that feed data into a live dashboard, helping policy makers to directly address problems in the field.

The quality of education is also improving, although challenges remain. In a recent survey that tracks learning outcomes over time, we found that there has been some progress in both basic Urdu and basic math performance across schools in the province.

Moreover, we found that the quality differences between public schools and low-cost private schools in both Urdu and math have virtually disappeared although private schools are still more advanced in English instruction. Further increasing learning outcomes remains the priority of the second-generation reform program in Punjab. In , the province hired almost , teachers using a standardized test that helped weed out the worst performers.

Since then, a hiring ban has been in place, which has made it difficult for the province to hire new talent. Nevertheless, the province has providing existing teachers with more support to improve teaching practices in the classroom. An innovative teacher support package has also been rolled out during the pandemic, which provides remote support to teachers in an application.

The innovative support package is also combined with training sessions during monthly teacher forums. The challenges posed by the current COVID crisis and the related school closures have been front and center over the last 18 months. The World Bank program has supported the government to develop easy to understand messages on health behaviors, as well as the Taleem Ghar program , which provides distance education over television and digital channels.

The Bank has also support re-enrolment campaigns to encourage families to send their children back to schools the moment that the schools re-open. Further, the Bank has supported material development for early childhood education, procurement of materials to support students more effectively both in the classroom and at home. Punjab Skills: The government of Punjab also addressed its strong commitment to build human capital in its Punjab Growth Strategy.

It recognizes human capital enhancement as a critical path to improving quality employment and acknowledged skills training as an important tool to achieve this target.

To support its objective, Punjab Skills Development Project , which has recently closed, has contributed to three strategic areas, including: i strengthening of the skills training system, ii improving the quality ad relevance of training programs, and iii increasing access to market relevant trades.

The project developed and implemented new competency-based training and assessment systems in 16 different trades, developed mechanisms for industry-linkages and benefited 2, students with more industry relevant training programs. It also benefited 54, trainees through short-term training. The project will focus on 12 out of 29 districts in Sindh, which are identified based on six indicators as lowest performing districts in terms of educational outcomes and benefit about 5.

The new project, builds upon the previous Second Sindh Education Sector Project that supported the GoS to implement the Sindh Education Sector Plan to improve governance and accountability in the education sector and benefited a cumulative 8. The project supported access and retention in selected schools through an improvement of infrastructure for approximately 1, classrooms, trained and assigned an additional 18, teachers and supported appointment of head teachers to the schools to improve the learning environment.

Together, these tools have allowed the Education Department to make evidence-based decisions for education improvements and have been specifically useful in the development of the SESPR and during the COVID period. To date, the Balochistan Education Project has helped to improve infrastructure of 1, schools across the province including schools with new or renovated buildings, with repaired facilities and upgraded schools from primary to middle and middle to high.

More than 2, project specific teachers have been provided training on pedagogy, subject content especially math and science and ECE. Real-Time Monitoring of more than 14, public sector schools across the province targeting more than 1 million children enrolled in the schools.

In the wake of COVID the project made necessary adjustments to support Secondary Education Department in safe re-opening of schools across the province, including project schools as well around additional high schools. The districts were selected because they have some of the highest refugee populations in the province.

The project will also focus on strengthening community engagement and grievance redress mechanisms of the health and education sectors by supporting schools in promoting student health.

Recruitment of staff for Project Management Units is underway. Since the Pakistan earthquake, which led to nearly 73, deaths and caused damages to over , houses, the Bank has been supporting the Government of Pakistan in shifting to an anticipatory risk management approach, rather than ex post. Initially, the Bank provided technical assistance to the government to highlight physical and fiscal risks from hazards, including risk assessments of federal and provincial capitals.

In parallel, the Bank also used grant resources to build the capacity of Provincial Disaster Management Authority of Balochistan. The project has supported restoration of more than kilometers of flood protection infrastructure along with strengthening of government capacity to manage disasters and climate variability.

Till date the project has improved disaster and climate resilience of nearly 2. About 3. The drought mitigation component of the project, comprising construction of small groundwater recharge dams, has already started generating strong development impacts for the target communities. The project is expected to improve weather forecasting in Pakistan and facilitate sustainable management of around 80, hectares of forest area.